Global Tablet Shipments to Overtake PCs by 2015, IDC Says

Global shipments of tablets will eclipse personal computers in 2015, as consumers flock to lower-priced and smaller alternatives to Apple Inc. (AAPL)’s iPad, market researcher IDC said.

Tablet shipments are projected to grow 45 percent from this year to reach 332.4 million in 2015, compared with an estimated 322.7 million for PCs, according to Framingham, Massachusetts-based IDC. PC shipments may decline 7.8 percent this year, the worst annual drop on record, the researcher said, a revision from its prior projection for a 1.3 percent decrease.

Apple, Citigroup, Glen Yeung and iPhone mentioned in Analyst: Cheaper Phones Are a Curse on Apple

EApple, Citigroup, Glen Yeung and iPhone mentioned in Analyst: Cheaper Phones Are a Curse on Apple

Will the introduction of low-cost mobile device alternatives into Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) product line hurt, rather than help, its bottom line? Ever since rumors emerged about the possible introduction of a low-cost iPhone, analysts have been trying to predict the impact that this device would have on Apple’s profit margins.

Citigroup (NYSE:C) analyst Glen Yeung believes that the introduction of a cheaper version of the iPhone will help drag Apple’s gross margins down later this year. Yeung also believes that Apple may introduce a cheaper iPad model to counter the falling sales of the iPad mini. However, he also believes that the overall mobile device market is inevitably trending towards cheaper devices.

Yeung bases some of his iPhone market predictions on a previous analysis done by his coworker Kevin Chang. Chang’s work concluded that “we continue to see weak demand for iPhone 5 but surprising demand sustainability for iPhone 4/4S,” reports Barron’s. Chang believes that the sustained popularity of the older iPhone models is due to Apple’s perceived lack of innovation in the iPhone 5. For this reason, he predicts that Apple will produce 10 million units of the iPhone 4 and iPhone 4S along with 18 million iPhone 5 units this quarter.

Report: Apple new partner, Pegatron for Low-Cost iPhone

Apple is moving to a new manufacturer to produce a low-cost iPhone, according to a report from the Wall Street Journal. 

As it seeks to lessen its dependence on Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn in an effort to diversify its supply chain, Apple has reportedly tasked a company called Pegatron with producing a forthcoming version of the iPhone. 

Citing people familiar with the matter, the Journal reports that the new low-end iPhone will be offered later this year. The reason for the shift was attributed to "risk diversification" following glitches in Foxconn's manufacturing process that resulted in scrathes on the iPhone 5's metal casing. 

First quarter 2013 - ABI's report data on mobile market share and analysis

First quarter 2013 market share by OEM

OEM shipments from first quarter 2010 to the first quarter 2013

Overall smartphone shipments vs. non smartphones

Analysis from ABI's Michael Morgan

Vendor	Q1 2013 shipments (millions of units)	Analysis
Samsung	112.8	Samsung was one of two top OEMs that was able to increase its smartphone shipments from Q4. Continued strength from it's Galaxy line of smartphones and the increasing strength of the Note line kept smartphone shipments growing. It appears that Samsung was one of the few OEMs to capitalize on China's Q1 buying season. While it was Samsung's strength in the premium smartphone segment that built its market leadership, it can be expected that Samsung's strategy for mid-to-low-cost smartphones will be the engine that keeps Samsung at the top over the mid-term.
Nokia	61.9	Nokia shipped 61.9 mllion handsets in Q1 and 6.1 million smartphones. Of the 6.1 miillion smartphones 5.6 million were Windows Phone devices with the remainder made of Symbian devices. With the lowest penetration of smartphones in the global top ten, Nokia is increasingly dependent upon its line of feature phones that are exemplified by its Asha line of devices. In regard to feature phones, the Asha line of devices boasts industry leading functionality, but it is uncertain is these "smartphone-like" feature phones will be able to compete with the growing sub-$100 Android smartphones over time.
Apple	37.4	Q1  2013 results exemplified Apple's key problem: "Anyone who wants an iPhone, already has one." Apple's year-over-year growth dropped from 88% in Q1 2012 to 6.6% in Q1 2013.  The slowed growth of iPhone shipments was accompanied by a massive drop in its stock price as investors worry about the potential for future revenue growth. With strong demand for the iPhone 4S in China, ABI Research is concerned that the iPhone 5 has not done enough to keep Apple's upgrade cycle intact.
ZTE	16.9	Despite a drop in handset and smartphone shipments in Q1, ZTE was able to keep its penetration of smartphone shipments at 54%. Like other Chinese OEMs, ZTE felt the pressure of Samsung in its key home market of China. ZTE is expected to continue to push itself up the value chain from low-cost handsets into premium smartphones and furthur develop its brand strength and recognition. While upmarket movement is a classic strategy, ABI Research beleives that ZTE should not move up stream at the expense of its core strength in delivering low cost products.
LG	16.2	With yet another sequential quarter of profitablility and shipment growth, LG appears to be one the select few handset OEMs to legitimately turn its business around from the smartphone market disruption that occurred in 2011 and 2012. LG made the right bets on LTE, Android and premium smartphones two years ago, and these bets are officially bearing fruit. ABI Research beleives that if LG can comfortably shift to success in the mid-tier smartphone space, it may be able to move up the top ten ladder over the next two years.
Huawei	14.2	Huawei saw a nice sales boost in Q1 from its key APAC market despite Samsung's increasing presence in the region. While Huawei does have increasing presence in international markets and in particular emerging smartphone markets, it will be increasing important that it defends its position in China. ABI Research beleives that if Huawei's inherent advantages in China cannot hold against Samsung's marketing budget, there will be little to stop Samsung from pushing Huawei back in other developed markets such as Western Europe and North America.
TCL (Alcatel)	8.5	TCL (Alcatel) shipments showed heavy seasonality in Q1 with a 37% sequential drop in shipments. Comparitively, TCL has low brand recognition for a top ten handset OEM, and ABI Research believes that this will prevent TCL (Alcatel) from fending off lower ranked handset OEMs on the rise.
Sony Mobile	8.1	With the launch of the iPhone 5 and the continued dominance of the Samsung Galaxy line of smartphones, Sony's smartphone efforts may have been lost in the fanfare of others success. Sony remains in the top ten list at No. 8, while other perenials such as HTC and Motorola have lost their ranking for the forseeable future. ABI Research belives that Sony's sequential shipment decline in Q1 signals a need for Sony to throw some strong marketing muscle behind its latest Xperia Z smartphone, and raise its awareness and presence in the North American market.
Lenovo	7.6	Like most China-based handset OEMs, Lenovo shipments decreased in Q1 due to pressure from Samsung in its home market of China. Although the Chinese market offers amazing potential for growth, Chinese OEMs such as Lenovo will need to build global strength in their brands if they want to capture more of their home markets.
BlackBerry (RIM)	6.0	ABI Research would classify BlackBerry's launch of its new BB10 platform a soft launch. With only select markets receiving the Z10 device in the quarter, BlackBerry was only able to move 1M of the new devices in Q1. However, with the Q10 and the Q5 devices coming to play in Q2, BlackBerry will be firing on all cylinders for the rest of 2013. WIth heavy demand build up from consumers waiting for a quality Qwerty smartphone to hit the market, BlackBerry may yet squeeze another golden egg from its old strengths.
HTC	4.5	Despite HTC's well designed One smartphone, initial sales were not enough to stem HTC's shipments decline. ABI Research has done considerable research on this device and found it to be one of the best designed handsets on the market. This goes to show that it is not always the best technology that wins in the mobile market. However, HTC's commitment to increase its marketing spend on the device may be the missing ingredient needed to stem HTC's decline.
Motorola	3.9	With little news about Motorola's X phone, the shipments of its now stale line of smartphones continues to decline. ABI Research believes that Motorola may be shifting away from developing unique branded handsets and moving more towards the development of Android reference designs that other handset OEMs can leverage. While this may help the Android ecosystem at large, the loss of Motorola's brand presence will only cause the sinking division of Google to loose relevance in the smartphone market.

The raw data

2013 Q1 Handset Shipment Market Share by OEM
Samsung	27.9%
Nokia	15.3%
Apple	9.2%
ZTE	4.2%
LG	4.0%
Blackberry (RIM)	1.5%
Huawei	3.5%
Motorola	1.0%
TCL (Alcatel)	2.1%
Sony Mobile	2.0%
HTC	1.1%
Lenovo	1.9%
Other	28.3%

 

Handset shipments by vendor
Vendor	1Q 2011	2Q 2011	3Q 2011	4Q 2011	1Q 2012	2Q 2012	3Q 2012	4Q 2012	1Q 2013
Nokia	108.5	88.5	106.5	113.5	82.7	83.7	82.9	86.3	61.9
Samsung	70.0	74.0	85.0	93.5	93.8	94.2	102.6	106.5	112.8
LG	24.5	24.8	21.1	20.0	13.7	13.1	14.4	15.4	16.2
Sony Mobile	8.1	7.6	9.5	9.0	7.3	7.4	8.8	8.7	8.1
Motorola	9.0	10.6	12.9	10.3	8.8	8.1	7.3	5.3	3.9
BlackBerry	14.9	13.2	11.8	14.1	11.1	7.8	7.4	6.9	6.0
Apple	18.7	20.3	17.1	37.0	35.1	26.0	26.9	47.8	37.4
HTC	9.7	12.1	13.2	10.1	6.7	8.3	7.1	6.1	4.5
Huawei	9.1	11.9	14.2	16.3	10.5	10.8	12.1	15.0	14.2
ZTE	15.2	19.6	18.9	20.0	18.9	19.7	17.6	20.8	16.9
TCL (Alcatel Mobile Phones)	7.7	8.9	9.4	8.1	7.8	10.8	10.5	13.4	8.5
Lenovo	0.8	0.9	0.9	1.1	2.3	6.8	6.9	9.5	7.6

 

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Apple hit by concern over margins

July 22 2008
Strong Macintosh sales continued to drive profits at Apple as the computer maker reported its third-quarter results yesterday, but a tepid forecast sent shares in the computer maker lower.
While Apple executives hailed the strong quarterly results, Wall Street analysts quizzed the group about its unusually weak guidance.
The shares fell 10 per cent to $149.70 after it said it expected profit margins to slip, due in part to a forthcoming "product transition" that it declined to discuss.
Peter Oppenheimer, chief financial officer, hinted that aggressive pricing of new products could eat into profits.
"We are going to be delivering state-of-the-art new products [at price points] that our competitors aren't going to match," he said.
Apple brushed off concerns raised in recent weeks about the health of Steve Jobs, whose gaunt appearance at the company's annual software developer conference last month alarmed some observers.
Apple later said the Apple chief executive had been suffering from a "common bug".
When asked about Mr Jobs' health yesterday, Mr Oppenheimer said the Apple co-founder, who has previously battled cancer, had no plans to leave the company and his health was a "private matter".
Apple said it had made a net profit of $1.1bn in the third quarter, up from $818m in the year-ago quarter. Sales were $7.46bn, up from $5.41bn last time.
Revenues from Mac sales rose 61 per cent in the quarter as the company shipped almost 2.5m computers.
IPod music player shipments jumped 12 per cent while shipments of the iPhone nearly trebled, with 717,000 mobile handsets sold in the period compared with 270,000 last time.
That figure did not include Apple's new 3G iPhone, which went on sale in 21 countries around the world earlier this month.
Apple predicted earnings of $1 per share on sales of $7.8bn in the coming quarter - lower than most Wall Street analysts had expected.
The group expected its gross margin to fall to 31.5 per cent in the fourth quarter, from 34.8 per cent in the third quarter. It expected a 2009 gross margin of 30 per cent.
While it did not report any numbers, Apple said the reaction to its faster iPhone had been "overwhelmingly positive". It said iPhone customers had downloaded more than 25m software applications from the group's applications store.
Apple last week reported that it had sold more than 1m 3G iPhones during the handset's opening weekend.

ICT to evolve towards TIME, says Ericsson Taiwan president

5 March 2008

Viewing that companies like Google and Apple Computer are starting to encroach into the communications sector, the existing industrial chain of information and communication technology (ICT) will develop into a complicated ecology made up of telecom, Internet, media and entertainment (TIME) industries, according to president Stefan Johansson of Ericsson Taiwan at a press conference on March 4.

Telecom carriers are facing increasing competition from other industries and they have to integrate resources or seek cooperation as well as minimize operating costs through IMS (IP multimedia subsystem) platforms, Johansson indicated.

As for the development of the global telecom market, voice, access to the Internet and mobile TV will be major applications of mobile communication networks while fixed networks will be used mainly to access the Internet and IPTV, Johansson pointed out. Although Ericsson does not supply WiMAX base station equipment, the company will provide other solutions related to WiMAX, Johansson noted.

UMPC (Ultra Mobile PC)

UMPC (Ultra Mobile PC)概念源自微軟(Microsoft)及英特爾(Intel)共同提出的Origami計畫，首款產品於CeBit 2006豋場即成市場焦點，但隨著時間推移，2年後的今日，UMPC卻始終未能繳出亮眼成績單。 UMPC最令人詬病的便是效能及電池續航力不足(目前頂多3~5小時)，顯然未達消費者期望水平。但這一切預估2008年將有所變化，主因2008年上半英特爾將推出專為UMPC設計的Menlow平台，目標使UMPC可連續使用6小時(待機10小時)，2009年英特爾更規劃推出可使UMPC待機24小時的Moorestown平台，效能亦可有所提升，將使UMPC硬體技術趨向成熟。 但硬體技術成熟，並不能代表UMPC的未來將是一片坦途，因為，UMPC市場還存在產品定位不明的問題。為此，英特爾另提出MID (Mobile Internet Device)概念，將此類產品重點放在Mobile Internet，但無獨有偶，Smartphone產品未來發展方向也鎖定於此，並已有蘋果(Apple)的iPhone大獲肯定、即將推出的Google Android平台手機引領話題，此外，華碩亦推出以低價訴求但規格與定位卻約略可見UMPC影子的Eee PC。一場行動上網終端大戰於焉展開。 事實上，上述硬體裝置互踩地盤的競爭關係，背後乃行動數位匯流趨勢的推波助瀾，在此趨勢洪流下，不同領域業者無不各出奇謀，以搶佔新市場版圖。對已在NB領域取得全球90%出貨量佔有率的台廠而言，UMPC/MID的出現，確實是業者搶進行動數位匯流趨勢的新契機，但在此之前，有必要掌握該產品的市場定位、與Smartphone和Eee PC等終端產品的競爭關係。DIGITIMES乃針對前述議題規劃本研討會，以提供關注UMPC發展的產業界最完整與精闢的分析。

China Mobile calls off iPhone deal

15 Jan 2008

Apple’s global sales target of selling ten million iPhone handsets by the end of 2008 was shattered as talks with the number one carrier, in the world's largest wireless market, has come to a halt.
Of China’s 522 million mobile phone subscribers, state-controlled China Mobile has 363 million subscribers and therefore a stronger upper hand in negotiating deals than other operators. "We can only say that negotiations have ended for now. We have no other news to report," said Li Honghui, a spokeswoman for China Mobile Communications Corporation."We have held talks with Apple to launch the iPhone device in China. However, those talks have ended," said Rainie Lei, a spokeswoman for China Mobile. Speculations point to disagreements over revenue-sharing terms in the preliminary discussions between the two companies.China Mobile, the world’s largest mobile phone operator based on the number of subscribers, was reportedly unwilling to accept Apple's request for a 20 per cent to 30 per cent share of China Mobile's user fees from future iPhone users.The Cupertino, California-based company, which released the hyped handset in the US, Germany, the UK, and France in 2007, has said it plans to launch the iPhone in Asia in June of this year. Apple, which so far has only released the device on the country's largest networks, has already begun talks with China Unicom to offer the iPhone exclusively in mainland China. Analysts believe smaller rival China Unicom is more willing to give Apple a larger piece of the revenue pie than China Mobile.

Elsewhere, Canadian company Research in Motion (RIM) is having an equally difficult time with China Mobile. RIM is known to have sent its first shipment of BlackBerry units to the mainland operator in October, with China Mobile vowing to kick off sales this year, but it has not yet began selling the devices.“You should ask China Mobile about the timeline,” RIM China general manager Charles Lui told Reuters. “From my perspective everything is according to plan.” The vendor also unveiled a Chinese distribution agreement with Alcatel-Lucent around the same time that has also failed to see the popular smartphone hit shops. Its regional launch is likely to come up against stiff competition from local players, including the similarly named RedBerry. Lui downplayed concerns and said RIM was “satisfied” with the staging of its Chinese launch and would initially focus on business customers. “China Mobile is basically targeting enterprises. Later on more services will be launched, but we need to start from somewhere,” he said. “It’s always fun to work in a competitive environment and BlackBerry has always welcomed competition.”

Apple unveils super-thin "Air" laptop, Web movies

15-Jan 2008

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Apple on Tuesday launched an aluminum-clad laptop just three-quarters of an inch thick, seeking to bring a new computer to market with the same cachet as its iPod and iPhone devices.
Apple also said it would let people rent films over the Web with upgrades to its iTunes online media store, a technological challenge to a movie industry still largely focused on DVDs.
Shares of movie rental firms Netflix and Blockbuster fell sharply in response, and Apple's own stock lost 5.5 percent since the announcements were widely expected and Chief Executive Steve Jobs failed to conjure up any big surprises.
Jobs set a high bar last year by unveiling the iPhone. In addition, many times he ends presentations with by saying, "One more thing..." as a prelude to something unexpected. This year there was none.
Still, Jobs' talents as a showman were on display when he took the stage at the annual Macworld convention in San Francisco to cheers and applause from a few thousand software developers, customers and Apple employees.
He detailed a series of new products and services but saved the laptop, dubbed the MacBook Air, for last, drawing it out of a standard manila envelope to emphasize its slim dimensions.
Jobs said the new notebook was the thinnest available, measuring 0.76 inches at its thickest point and tapering to just 0.16 inches.
Priced from $1,800, the Air bridges the gap between Apple's entry-level and high-end laptops, but analysts voiced concern that it could steal customers away from pricier products.
"It's not really clear how many more incremental buyers you can drive, and there could be some cannibalization," said Shaw Wu, an analyst with American Technology Research.
MacBook laptops have been one of the company's strongest products, with sales rising 37 percent on the year in the fiscal fourth quarter ended last September.
NEW APPLE USERS SOUGHT
Phil Schiller, Apple's vice president of marketing, said the new laptop could appeal to a large swath of customers, including business travelers, those in education and people who wanted a more attractive computer at home.
"The goal overall is to continue to grow the business, so having another product in the line helps to do that. If the mix (of customers) changes a little bit, it doesn't matter as long as we grow everything," Schiller said.
Apple stock has nearly doubled since last year's Macworld, and in late December topped $200 for the first time, driven by market-share gains by Mac computers, continued iPod strength, and enthusiasm over the iPhone, which Jobs said had sold more than 4 million units since its release last June.
Jobs showed off new iPhone features such as displaying a user's location on a map and a way to customize the main screen with icons linking directly to specific parts of a Web site.
"The iPhone is not standing still. We keep making it better and better and better," Jobs said.
But the company has struggled to find a big audience for Apple TV, a product originally designed as a Mac accessory for watching Internet video on a television and unveiled alongside the iPhone a year ago.
"It's not what people wanted. We learned what people wanted was ... movies, movies, movies," Jobs said.
A new version of Apple TV will be able to connect to the Internet directly and download TV shows, movies and music through iTunes. Viewers will be able to choose movies directly from their TVs and Apple said viewers could start watching within seconds if they had a fast Internet connection.
Jobs announced deals with all six major movie studios and several smaller ones to offer movies for rental through iTunes, with new releases costing $3.99 and library titles $2.99. High-definition movies will also be available.
The revamp of Apple TV hardware combined with a broad selection of movies would give Apple an edge over competitors such as Amazon.com Inc , Netflix and Microsoft Corp , American Technology Research's Wu said.
News Corp's 20th Century Fox, Walt Disney Co , Time Warner Inc's Warner Bros, Viacom Inc's Paramount, General Electric Co's Universal, Sony Corp's Sony Pictures, Lionsgate , MGM and New Line have all signed on to Web rentals, Apple said.
"It's too early to declare that this is going to be a big hit but this is arguably the best offering out there right now," Wu said.
Apple shares fell to $169.04, while mail rental firm Netflix Inc shed 3.2 percent, and top video rental chain Blockbuster Inc dropped nearly 17 percent.
(For more tech news see the Reuters Mediafile blog at http://blogs.reuters.com/mediafile)
(Additional reporting by Duncan Martell in San Francisco, Sinead Carew and Kristina Cooke in New York; Editing by Toni Reinhold and Braden Reddall)
Copyright 2008 Reuters

China Mobile in talks on iPhone

15 Nov, 2007

China Mobile CEO Wang Jianzhou has revealed the company is in talks with Apple to sell the iPhone but expressed reluctance to accept its partnership demands. “We still think we can maintain the operator-centric model because we have the customers,”he told attendees of the Mobile Asia Congress.
“We're discussing with Apple people but haven't any agreement. Our customers like this kind of fashionable product, and I think the big problem is with this model.” Apple expects to launch the handset in Asia next year following 2007 launches in the US and Europe. Wang indicated it is keen to continue its strategy of an exclusive operator partner with a strong revenue-share component.
It remains to be seen whether Apple will relent - China Mobile boasts nearly 350 million subscribers, which could translate into massive profitability just on handsets alone. Its stringent terms already saw Verizon decline an alliance in the US while the company agreed to launch the iPhone in France despite a law requiring it to sell unlocked handsets within the next few months. China Mobile is also unlikely to expend much effort in negotiations based on its subscriber trump card, tosay nothing of its membership in the recently formed Google Open Handset Alliance.
Meanwhile, the operator is on track to finish construction of its first eight metro TD-SCDMA networks this year. Wang said China Mobile will conduct a commercial trial once the builds are completed in anticipation of a 3G license award. The operator is widely expected to adopt the homegrown wireless standard following its inevitable spectrum win. "Once everything has been done, we will review the results accordingly," Wang told reporters.
China is expected to finally award 3G licenses following a restructuring of the nation's telecom industry. Wang declined to comment on possible changes, but said China Mobile was actively seeking to list A shares on a mainland bourse.

Google nears mobile phone deal with Verizon, Sprint: WSJ

31 Oct 2007
Google is close to a deal with Verizon Wireless and Sprint Nextel over its new mobile phone, according to the online Wall Street Journal.

An agreement is likely to reached within two weeks for launch of a Google phone in the middle of 2008. The central feature of the Google handset will be an open operating system that will encourage developers to create apps.

But the phone will include Google’s own applications – Google Maps, Gmail and a social networking feature combining YouTube and Facebook-style offering called Makamaka.

An agreement with major US operators would be a breakthrough for the search firm in its dealings with wary telecom operators.

As the ATT-Apple iPhone deal demonstrated, the carriers are still the critical elements in handset marketing channel, especially in the US.

Apple imposes new limits on iPhone sales

26 Oct, 2007

Apple Imposes New Limits on iPhone Sales to Crack Down on Unauthorized Resellers

Apple Inc. no longer accepts cash for iPhone purchases and now limits sales of the cell phone to two per person in a move to stop people from reselling them.

The new policy started Thursday, said Apple spokeswoman Natalie Kerris. Before then, there was no cash restriction and the purchase limit was five per person.
"Customer response to the iPhone has been off the charts, and limiting iPhone sales to two per customer helps us ensure that there are enough iPhones for people who are shopping for themselves or buying a gift," Kerris said. "We're requiring a credit or debit card for payment to discourage unauthorized resellers."
More than 1.4 million units of the hybrid cell phone-iPod have been sold since it debuted on June 29, according to Apple. It is expected to be a hot gift for the holidays.
Apple thinks some people already have purchased multiple iPhones to resell, including those looking to modify, or "unlock," the phones so they work on networks other than Apple's carrier partner in the United States, AT&T Inc.
Apple estimates that buyers of 250,000 of the iPhones sold so far intended to unlock them, Apple's chief operating officer Tim Cook said in a conference call with analysts this week.
Apple's attempts to prevent that "unlocking" activity, which included a software update that blocked the workarounds hackers had developed, have frustrated users — and sparked two lawsuits.
Source: AP News